I recently read a tweet which said that 26% of Labour, 26% of LibDem and 95% of UKIP members will be voting to Leave the EU. So this got me thinking about how the numbers might stack up.
Based on Party averages of 8 published polls since 8th January and adding in the SNP and Green party (assuming 10% for Leave, 90% Remain), and ‘Others’ (assuming 50:50 split), a successful Leave vote would be secured if 65% of the Conservative voters chose to leave.
The largest proportion of Conservatives voting to Leave that I’ve heard mentioned is around two thirds so a Leave vote is definitely on the cards.
However, if this vote were to reduce we would need an increase in Labour votes to compensate. Let’s say the Conservative vote dropped 10% to 55%, we would need to increase the Labour Leave vote by 14% to 40% to tip the balance.
This is a credible scenario, but shows that we have some work to do to ensure two thirds of Conservatives and more than one quarter of Labour supporters vote to Leave.