Well at least we know who is going to be leading the Country for the next while, and with the two main opposition Parties (Labour and UKIP) going through either a leadership challenge or elections for a new leader it seems Mrs May will have a relatively easy ride into the summer.
But there are a few questions still to be answered of course, so here’s my take on what will happen;
Will May call for an early General Election? No, is my strong belief;
- She won’t want to risk her tenure as PM
- By bringing a few ‘Leavers’ into the cabinet she will have placated many euro-sceptic Tories
- She won’t want to risk losing seats to UKIP in South East
- The Conservative party needs time to heal itself after the bruising Referendum campaign
- Labour are no threat at the moment and the longer they go on fighting each other the better for everyone
Will she trigger Article 50 and get Brexit going? Yes, early next year;
- By creating the Brexit minister role she sends out a message that Leave means Leave
- David Davis is an excellent choice but will need time to set up a team around him
- Boris will need a few months as Foreign Sec to visit prospective new trading partners and start those balls rolling along with Liam Fox as trade minister
- The delay will give more time for the EU to convince sceptics that we made the right choice – it will continue to implode, Italian banks will need bailing out, new waves of ridiculous rules and regulations will be brought out, the migrant crisis will continue unabated, other countries in Europe will clamour for their own Referendum. All this will make our decision look more and more like a great one
- We need a calm period in the financial markets. They need to be shown that the future is bright and so a few months of reflection and consideration are what’s needed
I just hope that Mrs May is serious about Brexit and not looking for an “EU-light” option. We need control of all our laws, control of our borders, control of our trade, control of our fishing waters and the UK supreme court to be supreme.
Then of course we have the Labour Party horror show unfolding before our eyes. This will be the main topic of political interest over the summer, with the big question being whether the party will tear itself apart. It’s hard to see how it can keep itself together when the Leader, who has the backing of the majority of members thanks largely to the £3 membership, has practically no support from the elected MPs. The biggest stumbling block to schism is who will get to keep the Labour Party name. Neither side will want to form a breakaway movement under a new name.
My prediction is as follows;
- Angela Eagle with face-off against Corbyn in a leadership election
- She will have the backing of a large majority of PLP MPs
- Corbyn will win the leadership election by a considerable majority
- The Labour Party will continue to be an ineffective opposition
- MPs will continue to lobby the Unions to convince them that Corbyn is a danger to the Party
- Next May there will be a big swing of votes from Labour to UKIP that sees us gain council seats and Labour lose control of councils across the Country
- Corbyn will be forced to admit that while he has the backing of members he has lost the backing of the ‘common man’ and stand down
- Some of the old-guard will reappear and Yvette Cooper will be elected as the new leader by this time next year.
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